Scouting the Double A Yankees – Mets Hitters: Havens/Den Dekker/Adams/Almonte

I posted a report yesterday about the pitchers I saw during the two games I saw between the B-Mets and Trenton Thunder. This report is about the hitters I saw. One hitter, Matt Den Dekker, was subsequently promoted to Triple-A Buffalo right after the series with Trenton. It’s funny, but the same thing happened with Jordany Valdespin, who was promoted immediately after I saw him play last year in Trenton.

If an B-Mets players want me to come out next time they are in town, I do take donations.

I asked one of the B-Mets players on Sunday when Den Dekker was getting the promotion, and the kid smiled, likely knowing it was soon. Looking at the Buffalo roster that night it was apparent Den Dekker was better than a couple of the Bison outfielders. And the success Kirk Nieuwenhuis has had in the majors was probably another factor to push the other left-handed hitting center fielder.

The B-Mets show a deep lineup, with one player, Josh Rodriguez, having 14 plate appearances (PAs)  in 2011 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. There is power from the top through the seven spot, and a nice mix of right-handed and left handed hitters.

Reese Havens

Once again Havens will not have a full season of baseball, having missed most of April with another injury, this time a bad back/oblique. However, he is healthy for now, and back with Binghamton. Being the top pick in 2008, many Mets fans had hoped Havens would already be in the majors by now or at least knocking on the door.

Havens showed his quick bat once again, and his swing is similar Yankees Triple-A second baseman Corban Joseph. He homered and singled on Saturday night, but also struck out five times in 10 PAs. His inability to make consistent contact is recognition of pitch location, specifically the upper and lower levels of the strike zone. Once Havens gets more reps his recognition will improve and so will his contact rates and offensive output.

In the field, Havens showed more range than he had last year, grabbing two ground balls clearly destined for center field.

However, another injury or two and it might be too late for Havens to have a decent career. He needs to stay on the field and get his reps. He’s not as good a hitter as Jason Kipnis of Cleveland, but has potential to be Kipnis lite.

Matt Den Dekker

As mentioned above, Den Dekker was promoted to Buffalo after the series with Trenton. Den Dekker has improved his power this season, banging out eight home runs, 21 doubles and four triples. His bat is much quicker than last year, with an improved swing path, much more direct to the ball.

In my notes from last season, I had written Den Dekker swung at lots of bad pitches, mostly breaking pitches in the dirt. However, these last two games showed to be a more patient (but still aggressive) hitter. He recognized pitches out of the zone, but was aggressive early in the count to attack hittable pitches. If you have read any of my prior pieces, you know I love aggressive hitters early in the count.

Den Dekker will be a doubles machine at the higher levels, with his above average speed as much as his gap power and ability to hit line drives down the RF line. His fourth inning double saw him get behind 0-2 to Brett Marshall but banged a hanging slider into the RF corner. He was also aggressive on other first pitches throughout the series.

Funny, but even though Den Dekker is a pretty good outfielder, more to his great speed rather than his initial routes*, during night games I have twice seen him muff long drives to centerfield in Trenton – once last season and once this past Saturday night.

*Some people think that route running is very important. It is important, but not for really fast guys. I have seen outfielders such as Brett Gardner, Austin Jackson and Den Dekker change their routes during fly balls, but turn on that “extra gear” to outrun the ball. Curtis Granderson is pretty good in center field, but always seems to change his routes. Routes are more important to slower outfielders who can’t outrun the ball. It is one of the more difficult skills to master in baseball.

If Den Dekker continues to hit in Buffalo and Jason Bay continues to struggle in the majors, don’t be surprised if Den Dekker gets a call in August.

Jefry Marte

Marte has skills to hit, with quick and strong hands, with good lower body movement to drive the ball. However, based upon the way he carried himself, it appears that Marte lacks drive. I only saw three PAs since Marte appeared to hurt his hand during a swing and was removed in Saturday night’s game. (UPDATE: Actually, Marte hurt his hand on a ground ball which popped up and hit his hand. A ball which almost took his face off.)

Anyway, his power numbers are improving each season, and will continue as he ages and gets naturally stronger. Some people feel they need to write a kid off if he doesn’t produce huge power numbers at the lower levels, but Marte was 17/18 to begin in Low-A Savannah (19 his second season) and not many kids translate raw power to games at that level. In addition, Marte is not listed on any top Mets prospect list, which might build into his favor and he has to work to get noticed again.

Marte might be one of those guys whose power readily improves as he matures – both physically and mentally. Give him time, let him play and he likely will surprise people.

Juan Lagares

Lagares is a guy who does lots of things decent, but nothing great. He started to hit last season in time split between High-A and Double-A, but is aggressive in that he doesn’t walk much or strikeout. But even with this aggressiveness, there is simply no power production, and his swing seems to bear out that it will not get there, either.

Lagares shows good range in the outfield, with a strong throwing arm, but without any significant offensive tools, his defense might get him to the majors, but it won’t be as a full-time starter.

David Adams

Finally back on the field after basically two seasons off from a busted ankle, Adams showed why the Yankees have been patient with the RHH hitter.

Adams showed tremendous plate discipline, the ability to recognize pitches early out of the hand, and the intelligence to read the pitcher based upon what was thrown to prior hitters. Over the two games, Adams consistently took very tough sliders off the outside part of the plate, not even twitching towards the pitch. Once, after a particularly tough slider from Greg Peavey, I blurted out “Wow, tough pitch!”

Adams also took tough change ups and fastballs just off the plate Friday night from left-handed Darin Gorski, waiting patiently for his pitch when ahead in the count.

It was when he got his pitch did Adams pounce. Despite going 1-7, a double, walk, K, and sac fly, Adams hit the ball hard three other times. He has quick hands, nice lower body rotation and remained balanced throughout his swing. He hit the ball hard to left and right field, ahead and behind the count, hammering a two-strike pitch from Peavey on the outside corner to RF for a sac fly.

He hasn’t hit for power yet this season, but with more reps the power will come back.

Adams also is a better fielder than I thought. He gets to ground balls well, has good hands and turns a quick double play, not flinching when a runner was charging towards second base. This was important since his injury was a lower body one, and second baseman sometimes get their legs taken out from them.

Adams has potential to help the Yankees (or another major league team) within two years, or be trade bait for an outfielder. With Cano in New York and Corban Joseph moving ahead of him, it’s not like the Yankees have much room at the second base area. However, Adams has played some third base in the past, and it is likely he could begin taking some reps there later in the season.

Zoilo Almonte

I was surprised when Zoilo Almonte performed well in spring training and began to become talked about in the blogosphere about possibly being the next Yankee starting outfielder. Even Joe Girardi heaped praise on Z.A.

Why was I surprised? I just don’t think Almonte is major league caliber. I saw him last summer after his promotion to Trenton and saw a guy who constantly got beat on hard stuff inside, then waved (and missed) at the better breaking balls he finally began to see. Looking at his career numbers, I noticed Almonte (like many hitters before him – Brett Gardner was one), who struggled at a new level when promoted but when they started the next year at that same level begins to produce.

But Almonte is the same hitter as he was last season, and has not yet produced at Double-A.

He was late on inside fastballs, and while he didn’t wave at many breaking balls out of the zone, there were a couple of instances where he was overmatched, like the first pitch slider from Adrian Rosario in the 10th inning on Sunday.

Almonte has some tools, but is prone to get on hot streaks and then cool off.  Zoilo is not going to replace Swisher in RF anytime soon, and likely will not help the Yankees in any significant way down the road. I like Melky Mesa much more than either of the Almonte’s.

Melky Mesa

There once was a time I thought Melky Mesa could strike out 200 times in a full season at Double-A. In fact, if both stayed healthy, I predicted he and Bradley Suttle would combine for 350 Ks in Trenton. But both were hurt part of the year in 2011. And Suttle has basically retired.

I saw last year that Mesa began to lay off many out of the zone off speed pitches at Trenton. He was also becoming more selective on pitches in the zone, too. However, he did continue to strike out at alarming rates, usually around 30%. That is not good for a guy who can really run, and should pattern his game more around his legs.

Mesa was even more selective this past weekend. A big at bat was his working a two-out walk in the bottom of the 10th inning, eventually scoring the winning run in Sunday’s game. He regularly took pitches just off the plate, both fastballs and breaking pitches, and used his hand speed to hammer a few pitches in his zone. Mesa has no trouble catching up to good fastballs, and with his bat speed and slight loft in his swing, he does put good backspin on the ball and hit some major league quality deep fly balls.

Many of those will eventually go out of the park. He does have seven home runs already this season, playing half his games in the challenging Waterfront Park.

Mesa has tremendous speed, a great throwing arm and covers lots of ground in CF. With the lack of quality outfielders at their higher levels, it is time to give Mesa an opportunity to test his newfound plate discipline at the Triple-A level.

Cody Johnson

I saw Johnson last year and he was a mess. Bounced his hands up and down, huge hitch and went from A to C on his swing with a big layover at B. After all this movement, he couldn’t hit anything inside with any velocity. He went for 34% Ks in 2008 and progressed each year to a high of 41% last season.

It was amazing then when I saw Johnson in April of this year, and his hands started down near his back hip, raised up slightly on ball travel, then Johnson would flick his hands out (a la Rod Carew) on his swing. This new style produced much better contact rates, lots of base hits, quite a few home runs and mucho less strikeouts. Thunder hitting coach Tom Slater helped Johnson with his new approach, something which begun in the offseason.

All good things for Johnson and his team.

However, to my surprise Johnson was back to his old (and less productive) ways this past weekend. He was in the midst of a huge slump (3 for 30, 17 Ks) entering the B-Mets series. I do not know if Johnson reverted back to his old way after his slump began or whether the new/old method of hitting precipitated the slump.

Whatever the reason, Johnson is back to missing fastballs, striking out lots and making very little contact. Johnson whiffed three times Sunday afternoon, getting pummeled by belt high fastballs over the middle of the plate by Greg Peavey. He did hit two balls hard, but the pitchers mistakenly threw him off speed pitches over the outer two-thirds allowing Johnson to quicken his bat.

His bat path is once again A to B to C, which translates to many more Ks down the road.

Johnson will hit his home runs because he has immense power in hitting mistakes, but he might want to revert bakc to the shorter swing path if he wants to move up and succeed in the organization.

New York Yankees: Discussed Cliff Lee Trade a Sign of a Great Farm System

UPDATE (July 9, 2010, 4:10 PM) : It appears via several sources that the Lee to the Yankees deal is OFF. The reason has been given that the Mariners did not feel comfortable with the ankle injury of second base prospect David Adams.

While I view that excuse as a made up one, it seems to me that the Mariners were using the Yankees as leverage to maybe get a better deal from another team.

Or maybe they received a last minute offer which they deem as much better.

The Texas Rangers have appeared to become the front funner, likely finally including first base slugger Justin Smoak in the deal. The Mariners obviously liked Smoak over Montero.

What this turn of events does not do is lessen the point of the article, which bring sinto focus the vast talent the Yankees have at their disposal via the draft and international free agent signings.

ORIGINAL PIECE:

While I am shocked that Cliff Lee will be traded to the Yankees, I am not shocked the Yankees were able to trade for him.

Most people will scream that the trade smells of the Yankees ability to pay for the remaining millions on Lee’s current contract, and that the rich will get richer.

But many other teams were willing (and able) to pick up the remaining $4 million. Teams like Minnesota, Texas, and to a lesser extent, the Cincinnati Reds and Tampa Bay Rays (all financially tight teams) have thrown their hat in the Cliff Lee ring.

But what the Yankees do have over those teams is a deep farm system with talent at highly desirable positions. This was about the Yankees having the resources to obtain Lee via trade by having developed one of the top farm systems in all of baseball.

And Branch Rickey is quietly smiling.

When Brian Cashman obtained complete control of baseball operations in 2005, the one aspect he wanted to improve was the franchise’s farm system. The Yankees began the trend of drafting hard to sign guys, then offering big money to get them away from college. They also became very aggressive in the international free agent market.

Other teams quickly followed suit on these tactics.

Their amateur drafting and international free agent signings would focus on “up the middle” talent, primarily catchers and pitchers, and to a lesser extent, center fielders and second basemen.

Positions which are important to building a quality, homegrown team, but players to be developed at positions which other teams also need. And which other teams trying to rebuild would trade established veterans for.

This trading of young talent for veterans is no different than what the Yankees of the 1980’s and early 1990’s did. But now the Yankees have built so much depth at these key positions, they are dealing from strength and not emptying their entire farm system to snag one or two players.

This is not like the Philadelphia Phillies trading several of their top players for Roy Halladay, then turning around and having to trade Lee to the Mariners to replace prospects from a now weaker system.

So trading Triple-A catcher/DH Jesus Montero , Double-A second baseman David Adams, and likely Triple-A 22-year-old starting pitcher Zach McAllister for one of the top five pitchers in baseball does not hurt the organization in the long run.

The Yankees still have highly regarded catchers Austin Romine in Double-A, J.R. Murphy in Low-A Charleston (although I still think they turn him into a corner outfielder), and 17-year-old stud Gary Sanchez , who is a man among boys in the rookie Gulf Coast League.

Sanchez hit his fourth home run today and has 20 RBI in 15 GCL games. Also, his throwing arm rivals many already in the majors leagues.

At High-A Tampa, the Yankees have left-handed hitting, smooth-swinging second baseman Corban Joseph , who will likely get a call up to Double-A Trenton before too long. They also have some 27-year-old guy named Robinson Cano in the majors.

And the Yankees have ridiculously strong pitching depth in the minors with Ivan Nova and David Phelps at Triple-A and Hector Hoesi , D.J. Mitchell (who has only been pitching for four years), and Andrew Brackman at Double-A.

And, despite what Jim Callis thinks , a boatload of highly-regarded pitching prospects are at High-A Tampa , with Dellin Betances, Manuel Banuelos, Graham Stoneburner, Adam Warren, and Shaeffer Hall.

With the rise of Phelps this season from dominating Double-A to his latest start at Triple-A, McAllister, who I have always liked , became expendable in order to obtain Lee.

And with those three highly-regarded players in Montero, Adams, and McAllister on their way to the Mariners, the Yankees still have tremendous depth in their system at catcher, second base and on the mound.

It’s not like the other New York team, which has just started to produce homegrown talent, but did not have enough chips to get the prize this season.

The Yankees have depth at the key positions, both to build from within and trade away to obtain their needs. This has been the plan all along for Cashman and the Yankees’ hierarchy since 2005.

And it appears to have paid off handsomely.

So please do not cry and whine about how the Yankees are buying their way to another World Series title.

Save that for December when Lee signs a long-term deal with them.